Forecast Issued on Tuesday, January 26, 2021 9:03 AM
Level 2 – Alert and Readiness
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/cold-weather-alert/?tab=coldWeatherAlert&season=normal#?tab=coldWeatherAlert
There is a 60% probability of severe cold weather, icy conditions and possibly heavy snow between 0900 on Tuesday 26 Jan and 0900 on Sunday 31 Jan in parts of England. This weather could increase the health risks to vulnerable patients and disrupt the delivery of services. Please refer to the national Cold Weather Plan and your Trust’s emergency plan for appropriate preventive action.
Please refer to the national Cold Weather Plan and your Trust’s emergency plan for appropriate preventive action.
An update will be issued when the alert level changes in any region. Alerts are issued once a day by 0900 if required and are not subject to amendment in between standard issue times. Note that the details of the forecast weather are valid at the time of issue but may change over the period that an alert remains in force. These details will not be updated here unless the alert level also changes, the latest forecast details can be obtained at the following link: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/#?tab=map
Regional Risk Assessments for occurrence of Cold Weather conditions between 09:00 Local Time on Tuesday and 09:00 Local Time on Sunday.
The areas that are likely to be affected are:
|
Region
|
Warning Level
|
Risk
|
Comments
|
|
North East England/NEE
|
Level 2 (Yellow)
|
60%
|
Some hills snow Tuesday. Rain overnight Wednesday into Thursday turning to sleet with hill snow. Some accumulating snow potentially falling to low levels for a time Thursday. Cold conditions then likely persisting into the weekend.
|
|
North West England/NWE
|
Level 1 (Green)
|
40%
|
Some hills snow Tuesday. Turning less cold than recent days, however, although further outbreaks of rain, sleet, and hill snow possible. Colder conditions perhaps returning for a time into the weekend.
|
|
Yorkshire and the Humber/YH
|
Level 2 (Yellow)
|
60%
|
Rain overnight Wednesday into Thursday turning to sleet with hill snow. Some accumulating snow potentially falling to low levels for a time Thursday. Cold conditions then likely persisting into the weekend.
|
|
West Midlands/WM
|
Level 1 (Green)
|
20%
|
Milder air becoming established in this area for a few days, before colder air moves in from the north later Friday and Saturday.
|
|
East Midlands/EM
|
Level 1 (Green)
|
30%
|
Milder air becoming established in this area for a few days, before colder air moves in from the north during Saturday. Chance of some low level snow in north Lincolnshire on Thursday morning.
|
|
East of England/EE
|
Level 1 (Green)
|
20%
|
Milder air becoming established in this area for a few days, before colder air moves in from the north during Saturday.
|
|
Southeast England/SEE
|
Level 1 (Green)
|
10%
|
Milder air in this area for a few days, before colder air moves in from the north during Saturday.
|
|
London/LON
|
Level 1 (Green)
|
10%
|
Milder air in this area for a few days, before colder air moves in from the north during Saturday.
|
|
Southwest England/SWE
|
Level 1 (Green)
|
10%
|
Milder air in this area for a few days, before colder air moves in from the north during Saturday.
|
General Comments
Turning milder for most parts Tuesday (26th) and much of Wednesday (27th), although some colder conditions likely persisting across northeastern England. Rain spreading northeast overnight Wednesday into Thursday (28th) has the potential to stall across North East England and Yorkshire and the Humber. As this encounters any persistent colder air, this is likely to turn to a mixture of rain, sleet and snow. Whilst snow is mainly expected across hills, some significant accumulating snowfall is possible to lower levels. This will be followed by cold temperatures returning to northeastern parts and continuing into the weekend. As such North East England and Yorkshire and the Humber are reduced to a level 2 alert from midnight, with all other areas reducing to a level 1.
The PHE Cold Weather Plan can be accessed at the following link:
http://www.gov.uk/government/collections/cold-weather-plan-for-england
A range of free resources from the Stay Well This Winter campaign can be downloaded or ordered here:
https://campaignresources.phe.gov.uk/resources/campaigns/34/resources/4045
To aid local planning, listed below are the Local Resilience Forum (LRFs) matched against their regions.
|
NHS Region
|
NSWWS Region
|
Local Resilience Forum
|
|
North
|
North East England
|
Durham and Darlington
Northumbria
Cleveland
|
|
Yorkshire and the Humber
|
Humber
North Yorkshire
West Yorkshire
South Yorkshire
|
|
North West England
|
Cheshire
Cumbria
Greater Manchester
Lancashire
Merseyside
|
|
Midlands
|
West Midlands
|
Staffordshire
Warwickshire
West Mercia
West Midlands
|
|
East Midlands
|
Derbyshire
Leicestershire
Lincolnshire
Northamptonshire
Nottinghamshire
|
|
East of England
|
Bedfordshire
Cambridgeshire
Essex
Hertfordshire
Norfolk
Suffolk
|
|
South
|
South East England
|
Sussex
Kent
Surrey
Thames Valley
Hampshire and Isle of Wight
|
|
South West England
|
Avon & Somerset
Devon, Cornwall & Isle of Scilly
Dorset
Gloucestershire
Wiltshire and Swindon
|
|
London
|
London
|
London
|
|
