Severe Cold Weather Alert – Level 2

Level 2 – Alert and Readiness

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/cold-weather-alert/?tab=coldWeatherAlert&season=normal#?tab=coldWeatherAlert

There is a 70% probability of severe cold weather/icy conditions/heavy snow between 0000 on Thursday 21 Jan and 0900 on Monday 25 Jan in parts of England. This weather could increase the health risks to vulnerable patients and disrupt the delivery of services. Please refer to the national Cold Weather Plan and your Trust’s emergency plan for appropriate preventive action.

Please refer to the national Cold Weather Plan and your Trust’s emergency plan for appropriate preventive action.

An update will be issued when the alert level changes in any region. Alerts are issued once a day by 0900 if required and are not subject to amendment in between standard issue times. Note that the details of the forecast weather are valid at the time of issue but may change over the period that an alert remains in force. These details will not be updated here unless the alert level also changes, the latest forecast details can be obtained at the following link: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/#?tab=map

Regional Risk Assessments for occurrence of Cold Weather conditions between 00:00 Local Time on Thursday and 09:00 Local Time on Monday.

The areas that are likely to be affected are:

Region

Warning Level

Risk

Comments

North East England/NEE

Level 2 (Yellow)

70%

Snow on Thursday morning leading into a spell of increasingly cold temperatures for the remainder of the period with frost and ice probable.

North West England/NWE

Level 2 (Yellow)

70%

Snow on Thursday morning leading into a spell of increasingly cold temperatures for the remainder of the period with frost and ice probable. Wintry showers possible over the weekend.

Yorkshire and the Humber/YH

Level 2 (Yellow)

60%

A chance of snow on Thursday morning leading into a spell of increasingly cold temperatures for the remainder of the period with frost and ice.

West Midlands/WM

Level 1 (Green)

40%

Rain clearing on Thursday to cooler temperatures, with a chance of cold weather by the end of the weekend.

East Midlands/EM

Level 1 (Green)

20%

Becoming colder through the weekend, a chance of overnight frosts.

East of England/EE

Level 1 (Green)

20%

Becoming colder through the weekend, a chance of overnight frosts.

Southeast England/SEE

Level 1 (Green)

10%

Becoming colder through the weekend, perhaps a chance of overnight frosts.

London/LON

Level 1 (Green)

10%

Becoming colder through the weekend, perhaps a chance of overnight frosts.

Southwest England/SWE

Level 1 (Green)

10%

Becoming colder through the weekend, perhaps a chance of overnight frosts.

General Comments

As Storm Christoph begins to clear to the east though the early hours of Thursday morning, there is an increasing risk of rain turning to snow for several hours. There remains a large amount of uncertainty in the exact position and track of this snow, but currently it is expected to fall mainly over high ground of the Pennines and Lake District, with a risk of 5-10cm in parts. The clearance of Storm Christoph will herald a change to colder air being introduced from the northwest bringing an increasing risk of cold weather into the weekend and perhaps the early part of next week. Frost and ice will become increasingly probable over northern parts of England, with some frosty nights across the south. Showers that fall in exposed parts of western and northern England could turn to sleet and snow over the weekend, but again there remains low confidence on any details at this stage.

The PHE Cold Weather Plan can be accessed at the following link:
http://www.gov.uk/government/collections/cold-weather-plan-for-england

A range of free resources from the Stay Well This Winter campaign can be downloaded or ordered here:
https://campaignresources.phe.gov.uk/resources/campaigns/34/resources/4045

To aid local planning, listed below are the Local Resilience Forum (LRFs) matched against their regions.

NHS Region

NSWWS Region

Local Resilience Forum

North

North East England

Durham and Darlington
Northumbria
Cleveland

Yorkshire and the Humber

Humber
North Yorkshire
West Yorkshire
South Yorkshire

North West England

Cheshire
Cumbria
Greater Manchester
Lancashire
Merseyside

Midlands

West Midlands

Staffordshire
Warwickshire
West Mercia
West Midlands

East Midlands

Derbyshire
Leicestershire
Lincolnshire
Northamptonshire
Nottinghamshire

East of England

Bedfordshire
Cambridgeshire
Essex
Hertfordshire
Norfolk
Suffolk

South

South East England

Sussex
Kent
Surrey
Thames Valley
Hampshire and Isle of Wight

South West England

Avon & Somerset
Devon, Cornwall & Isle of Scilly
Dorset
Gloucestershire
Wiltshire and Swindon

London

London

London

Issued by: Duty Meteorologist, Tel: 0370 900 0100 (C) Crown Copyright 2021. All Rights Reserved