SEVERE COLD WEATHER ALERT – LEVEL 3- SEVERE WEATHER ACTION

Forecast Issued on Thursday, January 28, 2021 8:48 AM

Cold Weather Alert

Level 3 – Cold Weather Action

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/cold-weather-alert/?tab=coldWeatherAlert&season=normal#?tab=coldWeatherAlert

There is a 90% probability of severe cold weather/icy conditions/heavy snow between 1800 on Friday 29 Jan and 0900 on Tuesday 02 Feb in parts of England. This weather could increase the health risks to vulnerable patients and disrupt the delivery of services. Please refer to the national Cold Weather Plan and your Trust’s emergency plan for appropriate preventive action.

Please refer to the national Cold Weather Plan and your Trust’s emergency plan for appropriate preventive action.

An update will be issued when the alert level changes in any region. Alerts are issued once a day by 0900 if required and are not subject to amendment in between standard issue times. Note that the details of the forecast weather are valid at the time of issue but may change over the period that an alert remains in force. These details will not be updated here unless the alert level also changes, the latest forecast details can be obtained at the following link: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/#?tab=map

Regional Risk Assessments for occurrence of Cold Weather conditions between 18:00 Local Time on Friday and 09:00 Local Time on Tuesday.

The areas that are likely to be affected are:

Region	Warning Level	Risk	Comments
North East England/NEE	Level 3 (Amber)	90%	Very cold with widespread overnight frost.
North West England/NWE	Level 3 (Amber)	90%	Very cold with widespread overnight frost.
Yorkshire and the Humber/YH	Level 3 (Amber)	90%	Very cold with widespread overnight frost.
West Midlands/WM	Level 3 (Amber)	90%	There is the potential for a period of snow on Saturday and again later on Sunday with widespread frost overnight and a risk of ice.
East Midlands/EM	Level 3 (Amber)	90%	There is the potential for a period of snow on Saturday and again later on Sunday with widespread frost overnight and a risk of ice.
East of England/EE	Level 2 (Yellow)	80%	There is the potential for a period of snow on Saturday and again later on Sunday, especially in the west of the region. Overnight frost will be widespread with the risk of ice.
Southeast England/SEE	Level 2 (Yellow)	60%	Rather cold with the potential for some rain, sleet and snow over the weekend and well as frost and ice. The far south and coastal districts look to be less affected, with Oxon and the Downs perhaps more prone.
London/LON	Level 2 (Yellow)	60%	Rather cold with the potential for some rain, sleet and snow over the weekend and well as frost and ice.
Southwest England/SWE	Level 2 (Yellow)	60%	Rather cold with the potential for some rain, sleet and snow over the weekend, especially over hills, with Gloucestershire the main reason for inclusion as a Level 2. Counties further south and west at this time look to be less affected. A more general risk of frost and ice is however expected.

General Comments

This alert supersedes that issued at 09:03 Tuesday 26 January. Some snowfall is expected in the north of England preceding the start of this updated alert period, however this is mostly expected above 200m. More widespread cold weather alert criteria are expected to arrive through Friday evening, with the likelihood that temperature thresholds will be surpassed over the weekend and into early next week in many regions of England. Whilst northern regions are likely to remain dry with widespread overnight frost, there remains a risk of snow over central and some southern areas on Saturday and then again later on Sunday, with ice also possible as these successive weather systems retreat southeastwards. There is some uncertainty on the northward extent of this snowfall, with keeping abreast of the latest forecast advised through the weekend in particular. This alert nominally ends at 09:00 on Tuesday. By this time confidence in the continuation of cold weather alert conditions becomes lower, however provisionally an extension in time for the alert is possible in some eastern and northern regions of England, with the south and west perhaps more likely to remain milder and wetter.

The PHE Cold Weather Plan can be accessed at the following link:
http://www.gov.uk/government/collections/cold-weather-plan-for-england

A range of free resources from the Stay Well This Winter campaign can be downloaded or ordered here:
https://campaignresources.phe.gov.uk/resources/campaigns/34/resources/4045

To aid local planning, listed below are the Local Resilience Forum (LRFs) matched against their regions.

NHS Region	NSWWS Region	Local Resilience Forum
North	North East England	Durham and Darlington Northumbria Cleveland
	Yorkshire and the Humber	Humber North Yorkshire West Yorkshire South Yorkshire
	North West England	Cheshire Cumbria Greater Manchester Lancashire Merseyside
Midlands	West Midlands	Staffordshire Warwickshire West Mercia West Midlands
	East Midlands	Derbyshire Leicestershire Lincolnshire Northamptonshire Nottinghamshire
	East of England	Bedfordshire Cambridgeshire Essex Hertfordshire Norfolk Suffolk
South	South East England	Sussex Kent Surrey Thames Valley Hampshire and Isle of Wight
South	South West England	Avon & Somerset Devon, Cornwall & Isle of Scilly Dorset Gloucestershire Wiltshire and Swindon
London	London	London